Why is it so hard to get a job right now?
Despite the lag in BLS data from October and November, the markers we’re seeing combined with the general sentiment suggests a very tough job market in the US. The unemployment rate has hovered around 4.4% as of September 2025, up slightly from prior months, but the data may be hiding deeper issues. Layoffs have spiked significantly, with over 153,000 cuts in October 2025, the worst for that month since 2003, driven largely by tech/retail cost-cutting. A report by ADP showed that November private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000, led by steep small business job cuts. Companies have slowed hiring, with the hiring rate falling to levels not seen since the post-recession era (around 3.3%). Perhaps the most misleading statistic is in job openings (JOLTS) data, which shows openings declining but still high at around 7.7M as of October 2025. Companies are posting jobs but are slow to hire, suggesting risk aversion and more conservative hiring behavior, often fueled by uncertainty and reduced confidence in the economy. Long-term unemployment is on the rise, with more people remaining jobless for 27+ weeks. This combination of factors has led some to deem this era of the job market as the “Great Freeze.”
In fact, while searching for phrases to title this blog post, I noticed +900% increases year-over-year for search queries like “how to get a job” or “how can I get a job.” Sorting by three-month change reveals +900% increases for queries looking for jobs with quick returns, or “how to” queries to land a job in tech or marketing without a degree.
The mad dash
More people becoming jobless with fewer job openings means increased competition for fewer jobs. And applicants are feeling the squeeze. Research shows that applying within the first 24-72 hours of a job post going live, or applying within the first 100 applicants, significantly boosts your chances (some estimates suggest an increase of 4-5x more likely to get an interview) because recruiters often review applications chronologically, and ATS prioritize early, relevant applications. What’s more, there exists a hidden job market where a large percentage of job opportunities—some estimates suggest as high as 70-80% of them—are never advertised. This means the jobs you are seeing on LinkedIn, Google, Wellfound, etc. are even more competitive than what the labor market might suggest.
Applying to jobs with 100+ applicants or roles that have been live for over 72 hours isn’t a lost cause. Much to do with advancements in technology and the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution discussed below, many of those early applicants are of low quality. So, if you’re a candidate with a strong tailored fit, it’s still worth applying. But depending on the capacity of the hiring team, the longer you wait the more you risk applying to teams who are overwhelmed with applications, or who have revised and reset higher benchmarks for the role. Hence why the first 72 hours is the sweet spot for visibility.
How is AI affecting the job market?
AI chatbots and LLM tech has opened the floodgates to all sorts of tools to help candidates prep, search, and apply to jobs. AI assistants can analyze job descriptions and suggest keywords and phrases for a better match. Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS) optimizers like Jobscan not only do the same but can also churn out freshly formatted resumes in a matter of seconds, with all the right keywords to achieve a 100% match with a role in an employer’s ATS system. Full-stack AI-based systems like JobCopilot offer solutions to search, write resumes and cover letters, and apply instantly as new roles are posted, and claim a 10x increase in interview rates.
Still, as this tech becomes more accessible and more normalized, the speed and the volume in which job seekers apply to new roles is only going to intensify. Job seekers are going to struggle to find a balance between quality and speed. Few workers today can sit around waiting for and responding to their dream job the moment it goes live, nor should they (more on the perpetual applicant below). And even fewer can afford to shell out the $36 per month subscription to run automated systems that produce sub-par application materials. And for those who can afford subscriptions to these automated AI systems, no AI system is ever going to match the human touch needed to produce a carefully curated resume that connects with hiring managers. So what’s the solution?
Search parameters
Not new information, but a quick and easy way to ensure you’re applying early and increasing your odds of landing an interview is to adjust the search parameters to return the most recent job listings. A boolean query that includes “in the last 3 days” ensures you’re seeing just that. Some platforms allow you to search jobs posted in the last 24 hours, LinkedIn is one of them.
Many companies allow job seekers to set up job alerts that are unique for the organization. Apple allows saved searches by location, product and service, and keyword, and can be delivered daily, weekly, or monthly. Obviously, if you want to increase your chances at getting in the early applicant pool, it’s recommended to set daily or as-posted alerts where possible.
Follow people who are also searching for jobs in your area of interest, and engage with their content
Influencers, labor market professionals, and career coaches have ramped up efforts to support job seekers during this time of increased strain and competition. Through your activity, LinkedIn’s algorithm does a nice job of identifying when you’re seeking a new job and algorithmically serves you more job content in your feed. What you see in your feed is largely dependent on the LinkedIn users you follow, connect with, and engage with — so when you see a helpful post like Jeff Baker’s ‘Work From Anywhere’ Newsletter, hit that Like and Subscribe button to see more posts like it.
Don’t fall victim to the churn and burn
As humans, it’s not in our brain chemistry to be great multitaskers, and when we become scarce on resources (time, money, energy) it becomes even more difficult to balance life with the job hunt. Still, it’s important to give yourself grace and the time to recharge. The system, as it stands, with less than 25% of applications reviewed by a human and on average 4.5% or fewer applications leading to interviews, naturally lends to a mindset where volume and speed of a job application takes precedent over the quality of an application. Today, perpetual applicants find themselves in a frantic cycle, refreshing search queries and job alerts in their inbox, pulling missing keywords and phrases from the job descriptions, using AI tools to stuff applications with keywords and phrases to increase match rates, smashing the submit button as quickly as possible, and repeating the process. Many of these poor, restless souls are repeating this cycle nonstop, 8+ hours a day, every day. It can be monotonous, exhausting, unsustainable work.
The best advice I’ve come across is to set a reasonable schedule with achievable goals. Maybe reserve a few days a week for applications and cap your application volume to focus on quality over quantity. Rather than repeating a the churn and burn process (search -> tweak -> apply -> repeat), break the process up into modules. For the first module, spend an hour or so searching preferred channels for a capped number of interesting jobs, and sort those roles order by preference and fit. Then spend the next few hours focusing on those jobs exclusively in order of priority. This can help prevent the creep into applying to any and all jobs that you come across that might be a fit.
The island of uncertainty
Dale Carnegie put it nicely: “when dealing with people, remember you are not dealing with creatures of logic, but creatures of emotion.” A candidate with no existing referrals exudes newness. Newness facilitates uncertainty, uncertainty facilitates fear, and fear erodes trust. Even the strongest candidates, if left on the island of uncertainty, can lose their shot at a great job because they failed to establish confidence through trust with the hiring manager. Do I trust that this candidate to have the skills required to excel in this role? Do I trust they’re going to be reliable? Dependable? Show up on time? Bring a collaborative attitude? Work well with the team? Are they going to be adaptive as our objectives evolve? Are they going to add long-term value to our organization?
As Richard Thaler puts it, “If people don’t trust the messenger, they won’t trust the message.” Hiring managers don’t need more information to decide, they need confidence. And referrals have withstood the test of time as a reliable method for increasing confidence in hiring decisions. Why? Because referrals reduce perceived risk in candidates, and allow managers to trust their own decision.
A report by Ashby analyzing over 38M applications across 93K jobs from January 2021 to December 2024 found that just 3% of inbound applicants lead to interviews. Analyses across major job platforms show an average application response rate of ~4.5%, meaning roughly 1 in 22 applications gets any response at all.
What do job seekers do with this information? First, they can start by adjusting where they search for and apply to roles. As of Q2 2025 Google is reporting the strongest application to interview rate at 9.3%. This is likely due to the search engine’s broad reach and indexing power—providing less saturation and fewer applicants per posting than LinkedIn and other platforms. By better aggregating job listings, Google allows for less competition and a higher chance that your application is seen by a hiring manager.
Referrals boost application to interview rates by 13x
Still, even in this best case scenario with 1 in 10 applications leading to interview, a tough job market can result in applicants struggling for weeks or even months without landing a single interview. This is where referrals come in. Warm outreach and referrals have consistently outperformed cold applying, and in tight job markets like we see in Q4 2025, referrals are even more important. The analysis by Ashby found that a referral from a known and trusted source can boost your chances of landing an interview by upwards of 13x, from 3% to 40%!
So, send that LinkedIn message, send that email, make that phone call, or introduce yourself at that event. And before you think you’re being a pain asking for informational calls and seeking referrals, remember that many employers prefer referrals, largely due to reducing the time and cost to list jobs publicly. In fact, some companies reward employees for the referrals they bring in through promotion and bonus incentives. Sure, you’ll get some rejections. And some executives are just too busy to respond to all the messages they get, even if they’d like to. But those who do take the time to respond might be the type of manager you want to work with—those interested to learn and open to helping others, because at some point, every professional has walked in these shoes.
Staying tip of spear as a professional
Last, there is no doubt that searching for a job in a tough market can be soul crushing. Many apply to hundreds of jobs a month with little sign of progress. Balancing job applications with work toward independent projects can help preserve morale. Interested in UX/UI product jobs? Work on your portfolio. Find individuals who need something, and build it for them. Can’t find a client? Build something you’re interested in, post it to Reddit and LinkedIn and other forums and to show your work and get feedback. Highlight your work on your website or GitHub. Interested in nonprofit or social impact work? Volunteer with a local nonprofit, get around likeminded individuals, and ask about openings. Contact your local university and researchers in your field of interest and offer to support their work.
The point is, even if the job you’re after is predicated around sitting behind a computer all day, don’t sit behind a computer all day. Get out, engage with people, and make your professional intentions known. Practice the soft skills that hiring managers find most valuable—show that you’re reliable, dependable, collaborative, use clear and inquiry-based communication, and are adaptive. Forbes lists 7 traits that hiring managers look for including: a strong work ethic, an entrepreneurial mindset, a curious and continuous learner, strong self-awareness, and conscientiousness. Build things, ask for informational calls, contribute to teams even if the work is unpaid, get around like-minded professionals, practice the soft skills, and you will draw the attention of hiring managers.